GE insights 2
Here are the General Election results for the 2010 and 2015 elections, together with the candidate list for today.
Interesting issues regarding Gedling:
(1) Those additional 5000+ Lib Dem voters who appeared only in 2010 (the 2015 figure is in line with their ‘usual’ vote) did not apparently go to Labour in 2015 after their obvious disgust at the national party for being in the coalition. Will they turn out this time and support Labour?
(2) Those additional 4,000ish UKIP supporters who suddenly appeared in 2015 – will they go UKIP again this time (I doubt it) and if not, will they go Tory or go back to ‘staying home’ (as it looks as though they did normally – Wikipedia has shown a combined UKIP/BNP total of around 3,000 for a long while).
These are two groups that could swing Gedling either way regarding the two main parties. My money – quite literally – is on Labour on balance getting the upper hand, whether more LibDems than Kippers switch, or both groups staying home.
Moving to the national picture, my national choice model suggests an overall increase in turnout and unlike those pollsters who have assumed that any such increase will be among the young but simply reinforcing existing majorities in Labour seats my model suggests:
(1) The young will turn out a lot more, BUT ALSO
(2) Annoyed REMAINers in other age groups will turn out to vote Labour or vote tactically to get their local Tory out if (s)he is seen as ‘too HARD BREXIT’. Indeed I suspect turnout for the Tories in some key seats will go down (due to the REMAIN/Soft BREXIT Tories – yes there are quite a lot of them), putting into play Tory seats that nobody predicted were competitive. I’ve already blogged about the fact that in the 9-10 month period following the EU referendum, whilst the LEAVE vote has solidified, it has solidified for a SOFT BREXIT option. Furthermore I’d say Corbyn has done a good job walking the tightrope of not putting off too many LEAVE supporters in Labour heartlands whilst leaving the door open to the EU to try to gain those 3.5 million people out there who want REMAIN but who didn’t vote in the referendum last year. Of course 3.5 million isn’t good enough if they are piled up in existing Labour seats and whilst I can’t predict at individual constituency level, regional analysis suggests they aren’t. Hence why the pollsters are all over the place. Incidentally the polls that have been closest to my choice model in methodology are the YouGov ones – which are the ones predicting the smallest number of Tory seats.
My usual big caveat applies – my study was done to understand attitudes and voting behaviour on the EU, not the General Election, which was called out of the blue and when I was in the middle of analysis. Whilst it allows insights to be drawn on how BREXIT could define the general election outcome, if most people in the end vote completely on other issues then my results could be completely wrong. However, I’ve bet (literally) on them not 🙂