Category Archive: 'Blog'

How Might the US Presidential Election Have Turned Out Under Most-Least Voting?

My usual posts concern Best-Worst Scaling (BWS)[1] – a method of choices conducted at the level of the individual respondent to obtain his/her complete preferences. This leads to some heavy duty explanation about how we deal with the “within person variation” in such models. As an alternative “way in” to this field for newbies, I […]

Choice models beat polling

Discrete Choice Modelling – Why it Beats Polling I think it’s time for a comprehensive but (I hope) readable post on discrete choice modelling, using the timely application of opinion polling: why and how it works, given my success in the first proof of concept polling study using the most modern type of choice model […]

Quick guide to why polling goes wrong – part 2

An observed frequency – how often ‘Labour’ is chosen over ‘Conservative’ – is a raw estimate of the probability of voting Labour over Conservative This probability is actually a perfect confound of a mean (how far apart on the political spectrum) a respondent places ‘Labour’ and ‘Conservative’) and a variance (the error distributions around each […]

Quick guide to why polling goes wrong – part 1

Posted this on twitter yesterday and it had cause to be mentioned by me on a blog-site as a comment (currently under moderation). So here it is in a nutshell. • Labour supporters Mr Smith turns out 9/10 of the time; Mrs Jones 6/10 due to differing certainty. • This ‘inconsistency’ (heteroscedasticity) gives BIASED results […]

BREXIT graphs then and now

Short post showing graphically what the national survey of 944 respondents (quota sampled) gives in terms of model predictions of the vote. NATIONAL VOTE Red is the cumulative vote likelihood amongst the actual voters in last year’s EU referendum, blue is that for those who claimed they’d vote in a hypothetical April 2017 rerun – […]

Attribute non-attendance

It is nice to see attribute non-attendance examined with a focus on why results might be terribly wrong. Of course I did this 1.5 years ago with a revolutionary within-subject study (the first ever). It showed that a compromise between efficient and cognitive designs may be the way forward if we wish to properly predict […]

YouGov and prediction

YouGov are sending out emails crowing about their successful prediction of the General Election. Let’s not forget that they didn’t exactly ‘big up’ that, new, model before the election. Although neither did I with my model, so I won’t criticise them on that score here. What this post is about concerns the nature of their […]

My correct election prediction

Let’s be clear – polling is dead. A Nobel Prize-winning method killed it in 2000. I knew the Conservatives would lose their majority – and put money on it. Why was I so sure? I ignored opinion polls because their snapshots of opinion on a single left versus right dimension don’t work anymore. People consider […]

Election 2017

Well, not all the seats have declared but we know the overall result, and it is very interesting, in so many ways. First of all, polling. Conventional opinion polling is a zombie – the walking dead. In a world when people have multiple dimensions of importance, ‘snapshots’ of opinion don’t cut the mustard. Let’s not […]

GE insights 2

Here are the General Election results for the 2010 and 2015 elections, together with the candidate list for today. Interesting issues regarding Gedling: (1) Those additional 5000+ Lib Dem voters who appeared only in 2010 (the 2015 figure is in line with their ‘usual’ vote) did not apparently go to Labour in 2015 after their […]